Netflix's “Misleading” Prediction Market Documentary Trailer Has Kalshi Threatening Legal Action

^{A screenshot from Netflix’s trailer for INSTADOCS: The Prediction Games, showing what Kalshi calls a "fabricated" trade in Nevada on Spain winning the World Cup final match. (Photo: courtesy of Netflix)}

Kalshi sent a cease-and-desist letter to Netflix today over its trailer for an upcoming documentary about prediction markets, claiming the footage contains “fabricated” content. The production, titled INSTADOCS: The Prediction Games, is set to be released on Sunday, just a week after the 2026 FIFA World Cup final concluded on July 19. 

The trailer shows traders at a World Cup watch party in Las Vegas showing off their winnings on prediction market apps, including Kalshi. The problem is that there is currently a court order requiring Kalshi to block sports-related markets for Nevada users due to a lawsuit filed by the Nevada Gaming Commission.

"Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets," Kalshi head of marketing Brandon Beckhardt said in a statement on X. "Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction."

Kalshi’s lawyers say the trailer contained “misleading” statements that portrayed trades on the app as in violation of the court order. The company told CNN that the trades were made in  2025, well before any restrictions on the app in Nevada were in place.

The documentary will feature an interview with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, highlighting the platform's involvement in the film's production. It also includes interviews with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

Polymarket has not commented on the legal dispute at this time, and Kalshi has only officially commented on the matter via Beckhardt’s statement on X.

What’s Shown in the Trailer 

The trailer opens with a title card reading “July 19, 2026,” the day of the FIFA World Cup final between Spain and Argentina. It cuts away to a luxury home in Las Vegas where a group of traders has gathered to watch the game. 

This is very clearly Las Vegas, as you can see The Strat in the background of the opening shot. In the documentary, they also state that the location is the Mirage Mega Mansion, a luxury rental property in Las Vegas.

At 29 seconds into the trailer, one of the individuals in the video says that he “put $5,000 on Spain to win the whole thing,” referring to the final World Cup match. The real question is: how are these people able to trade on Kalshi or have active sports contracts while in a state that doesn’t allow them? 

Nevada’s Restrictions on Kalshi Use

People who live in or are visiting Nevada can still have the Kalshi app on their phones and trade on other markets, but not on sports, entertainment, and election contracts. This is due to Nevada’s geofencing on those specific categories. If traders in Nevada attempt to do so, it will stop them before they can even select the amount of money to trade.

For example, if someone placed a trade in California or Arizona and then drove to Nevada, that existing position wouldn't suddenly become illegal. But if someone within Nevada used a VPN to circumvent the geofence and placed a trade while physically in that same state, that would be a different situation entirely. 

Many on social media have been discussing whether the individuals in the trailer located in Vegas used a VPN to make their trades on Kalshi. 

According to CNN, the party in the video was hosted by Winable, a popular platform for buying and selling sports picks. The company stated on X that the trades shown in the video were not made within the state of Nevada.

“These trades were obviously all placed outside of Nevada,” the company wrote on X. It is perfectly legal to track those trades from anywhere in the world.”

There is no confirmed evidence about the locations of the participants when they made the trades shown in the film. It is also unclear whether the participants staying at the Mirage Mega Mansion were Las Vegas residents or visitors who specifically set up the rental for the World Cup final watch party. 

Kalshi's Ongoing War With Nevada Regulators

Among all of the states where Kalshi has faced legal challenges, Nevada has been one of the most intense. Legal gambling has existed here the longest and is strictly regulated.

Kalshi entered Nevada, affirming that it was a federally regulated derivatives exchange under CFTC jurisdiction, rather than a gambling platform subject to state gaming law. The platform was subsequently slapped with an initial cease-and-desist order from the Nevada Gaming Control Board in March 2025, setting the stage for the restrictions on sports contracts and sparking the Netflix controversy.

Within the state of Nevada, players are barred from placing trades on sports, entertainment, or elections for the foreseeable future. A Netflix documentary trailer showing users actively betting in Las Vegas is not an ideal look for Kalshi, especially as legal battles with Nevada continue into July.

INSTADOCS: The Prediction Games will premiere on Netflix on Sunday, July 26.