2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Kalshi Has Chestnut as Heavy Favorite in July 4 Tradition

^{Defending champion Patrick Bertoletti and competitive eating legend Joey Chestnut face off at the weigh-in for the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. (Photo: Efren Landaos / Sipa USA)}

Online prediction market platform Kalshi has opened trading on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for the first time, with traders quickly pegging 16-time champion Joey Chestnut as the overwhelming favorite to eat his way to another victory.

As is traditional, the contest – which has both a men’s and women’s division – will be held at Coney Island in New York City on July 4.

Chestnut Back in Action After Sitting Out 2024

At the time of this writing, shares in Joey Chestnut to win the contest are trading at $0.91. Since they pay out at $1 per contract, this implies approximately a 91 percent chance of Chestnut emerging victorious. 

It’s easy to see why Chestnut is the clear choice to win. In 2021, he set the world record at the contest, eating 76 dogs and buns in 10 minutes. He has won virtually every year he has competed since 2007, with the exception of an upset victory by Matt Stonie in 2015.

But Chestnut sat out the 2024 contest, allowing for a new winner. It was Patrick Bertoletti who took advantage of that opportunity, devouring 58 hot dogs and buns to claim the mustard belt. Bertoletti had several podium finishes to his credit before his win in 2024.

Still, Bertoletti is a massive underdog heading into what could be a virtual head-to-head showdown with Chestnut on Friday. Kalshi users are currently trading Bertoletti contracts at $0.06. But the reigning champion says he has a better shot than many fans and bettors might expect.

“I think that it relieves a lot of pressure, as people will not be looking at me when all their attention is [on] Joey,” Bertoletti told Kalshi. “I would much rather have this be the case. Undersell and overperform is kind of my motto. I am just happy to be sharing a table with Joey and all the other incredible eaters.”

How Many Dogs Will Winner Chow Down?

Only two other competitors are trading at prices of at least $0.01. Geoffrey Esper, who ate 53 dogs and buns in 2024 and has been the runner up in four consecutive contests, is priced in at $0.03, while last year’s third-place contested, James Webb (52 hot dogs) is being traded at $0.02. In total, more than $4.6 million had been traded on the contest winner market as of Tuesday afternoon (June 1). 

But there’s another market on offer for those looking to make hot dog-related investments. Individuals can buy contracts on how many hot dogs the winner will consume. The contracts start with guesses of 50 or more, which are trading at $0.99, or as high as 85 or more ($0.05). The most competitive market is 75 or more, which is currently trading at $0.44 for yes and $0.57 for no. 

“There are too many outside factors, like the weather, for me to weigh in on that,” Bertoletti said of the number of hot dogs that the winner will eat. “It’s mostly just weather. Low humidity and mid-to-low 80s is ideal. If that is the case, the numbers will be sizable.” 

While Nathan’s promotors have at times invented legends about the contest, saying it dated back to 1916, recorded contests date back to at least 1967, when Walter Paul won a contest held on June 30, ostensibly to celebrate the 100-year anniversary of the invention of the hot dog.