Two Vegas Pro Bettors Break Down Team USA’s World Cup Chances

^{American soccer fans are banking on star Christian Pulisic to come through for Team USA in the World Cup after recovering from a calf injury. (Photo: Mark J. Terrill / AP)}

LAS VEGAS – World Cup betting action is at a fever pitch in Las Vegas right now. The excitement surrounding Wednesday’s Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina is nearing an all-time high at Vegas casinos and sportsbooks. 

The Americans are nearly -300 favorites (bet $300 to win $100) at sportsbooks on the three-way moneyline for their next match after winning Group D, while Bosnia and Herzegovina is around an 8/1 underdog to pull off the upset. A draw at the end of regulation time is worth about 4/1. Team USA's opponent qualified as the third team in Group B, behind Switzerland and Canada, which had already advanced to the Round of 16. 

Place your bets on Team USA to win the FIFA World Cup!

Whether attending World Cup watch parties around Sin City or watching elsewhere, Vegas visitors and locals are gearing up for what they hope will be a championship run. While the odds don't necessarily favor the Americans to win the World Cup for the first time, fans are still enjoying the ride as the country heads toward its 250th anniversary celebration on July 4.

Fuhrman Eyes Round of 16 Appearance for Team USA

Two Vegas professional sports bettors have been following all the World Cup soccer action closely and have strong opinions on what will happen the rest of the way. Todd Fuhrman, a former oddsmaker at Caesars, left to become a pro bettor and industry insider more than a decade ago. He also happens to be a passionate soccer fan.

Fuhrman attended Team USA’s match versus Paraguay on June 12 at SoFi Stadium, calling it the “single best half I’ve seen from USMNT in a major tournament in a long time.” The Americans won that game 4-1, then blanked Australia 2-0, before falling to Turkiye 3-2 in the final seconds last Thursday after already locking up first place in the group. 

A loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina would obviously be disappointing for Team USA, but Fuhrman does not see that happening. He told Casinos.com that the Americans have the potential to get to the Round of 8 and would consider that a “job well done” if it happens.

“I think they can beat the winner of Belgium/Senegal (in the Round of 16), but neither matchup will be easy given how friendlies in pre-tournament build-up against both of them went,” said Fuhrman. 

In those games, Team USA fell to Belgium 5-2 on March 28 and edged Senegal 3-2 on May 31.

Taddeo Hoping to Stay Hot on World Cup Bets

Frankie Taddeo is a former Senior Betting Analyst for Sports Illustrated and once worked for the former New York/New Jersey MetroStars of Major League Soccer (now the New York Red Bulls). Taddeo recently put together a 17-1 sports betting run, including 5-0 on World Cup games.

Taddeo has spent decades building his trusted “Respected Money” betting information by combining his deep network of Las Vegas contacts with his own proprietary models and projections. This hands-on approach helps him consistently find the sharpest lines and best numbers available around town. According to Taddeo, the current World Cup has been a major win for sportsbooks, driving strong betting volume nationwide.

“Due to the performance of the USA, the betting handle for this World Cup is much higher compared to past ones - especially with the games being played here in the States,” Taddeo said. “Fans from around the world who are attending the matches are also placing wagers in sportsbooks across the country, driving up handle on a sport that does not primarily attract American bettors.”

However, live betting opportunities have been challenging for those trying to get down wagers in a hurry, hoping to capitalize before a potential goal. Quick line changes and bet limits have prevented Taddeo and others from making more money than they could.

“Live betting on the World Cup here in Las Vegas has been a bit frustrating at times,” Taddeo said. “During the opening round, I had trouble getting down my desired amounts because in-play markets were often limited to a $200–$250 maximum. From a live betting perspective, it has been profitable, but not always at the bet sizes desired by veteran sports bettors.”

Furhman noted that the late goal by Turkey to beat Team USA last Thursday wasn't as damaging to live betting at sportsbooks as it might appear. Most of the overall action was on Team USA to win the group finale, so the sportsbooks got what they wanted in terms of the result. 

“The live swing on the game was not nearly what you'd expect given the majority of action bet on USA-Turkiye was on the Americans -.5 rather than a bet impacted by the late Turkey win,” Fuhrman said. “The over was comfortably put to bed before halftime, so from the operators I spoke with, all they wanted in the match was a draw or better.”

Two Experts’ Picks to Win the 2026 World Cup

When all is said and done on July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium, only one country will hold the FIFA World Cup Trophy. Neither Fuhrman nor Taddeo has Team USA winning the World Cup Final on its home turf, but both share an intriguing sleeper pick in Morocco. The tourney has been pretty predictable, with 11 of the 12 group favorites winning their respective groups and Portugal being the exception. Both Fuhrman and Taddeo prefer chalky sides (the favored teams) to win it.

France is currently the +320 betting favorite to take the World Cup, with Argentina a close +370 second choice at Circa Sportsbook. Taddeo is betting on those two teams meeting in the World Cup Final.

“I believe we are headed for an incredible final between France and Argentina,” said Taddeo. "The best player in the world right now, Kylian Mbappé, going up against the GOAT, [Lionel] Messi — sign me up!”

Fuhrman is going a different route with picking Spain, which is third on the betting board at +740, giving bettors a little bit more value and a better payoff if they win it.

“I know a lot of people are picking Argentina to win it because they have a very favorable path, but I still have my questions when they step up in class given such a favorable group,” Fuhrman said. “France is by far the deepest side in the competition and is an absolute menace going forward, even if defensively they're still vulnerable.  I'm going to stick in Europe with a group that I believe to be the best defense in the competition in Spain to get the job done.”