UK Black Market Stakes Forecast to Almost Double to £33bn by 2028

^{It’s estimated that British bettors are already wagering up to £17 billion annually on offshore sites, but that figure could increase to £33 billion by 2028. (Image: Pexels)}

By Daniel Smyth

Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, called the latest research a “wake-up call”. His words came on the day members of the Gambling Commission met to discuss financial risk assessments (FRAs), a measure critics believe will drive more customers offshore.

UK bettors could stake more than £33 billion annually with illegal offshore casinos and sportsbooks by 2028, almost double the 2025 figure of £17 billion, according to H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC).

The forecast was released by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) on 21 May 2026, the same day the UK Gambling Commission Board met to discuss financial risk assessments (FRAs), a measure the BGC argues will accelerate the shift to unlicensed sites.

What the forecast shows

H2GC analysis projects that black market stakes will rise from £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028. At that level, almost one in five pounds wagered online in the UK would be placed with operators outside the regulated market.

BGC Chief Executive Grainne Hurst called the figures "a wake-up call." Her words landed as the UKGC Board considered FRA proposals, with operators warning that intrusive checks could push more customers offshore.

"Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector," Hurst said.

Why financial checks are at the centre of the debate

The UKGC's FRA proposals would identify high-spending customers who may be in financial difficulty using credit reference data. The regulator insists they are not affordability checks and will be "frictionless," with customers not required to submit bank statements or payslips. Tim Miller, UKGC Executive Director, made that case at the Ethical Gambling Forum at Flutter's Leeds HQ on 28 April.

Two surveys complicate the picture. A YouGov poll commissioned by the BGC found 65% of UK bettors would refuse to provide personal financial documents to keep betting. Separately, a UKGC survey of more than 12,000 respondents, released to the BGC under FOI, found 77% opposed financial risk checks.

Hurst has urged the UKGC to ensure any rollout is "genuinely frictionless and targeted." Her concern is that anything less drives punters straight to unlicensed sites that face none of the same checks.

Who is affected

UK-licensed operators are most at risk of losing market share. They already have faced a Remote Gaming Duty hike to 40% from 1 April 2026, alongside compliance costs that offshore competitors avoid entirely. WARC has forecast that unlicensed operators will increase UK ad spend by 32% in 2026, while licensed operators will cut their ad spend by 9.2%.

For players, the risks of using offshore sites include no payout protection, no dispute resolution, no AML checks, and exposure to data and security failures.

Casinos.com spoke to iGaming Safety and Compliance Analyst Piotr Szreder, who estimates that 15-20% of UK betting activity is now on unlicensed sites. The pattern is not unique to the UK,  bettors in Italy, Spain, Portugal and other regulated European markets are migrating to offshore platforms as regulation tightens and offshore operators offer crypto payments and bigger bonuses.

What happens next

The UKGC is expected to appoint a Head of Illegal Markets and has £26 million in Treasury funding allocated over three years to expand enforcement. A government Illegal Gambling Taskforce is developing the UK's first national risk assessment of the unlicensed market.

Whether enforcement can keep pace with a forecasted near-doubling of black market stakes will define the next two years of UK gambling policy. The regulated sector argues the only sustainable answer is making the licensed product more competitive, not just harder for offshore operators to reach.