BGC Questions Evidence Behind £458m Machine Games Duty Rise as Budget Nears

^{The Betting and Gaming Council is questioning the evidence behind a proposed Machine Games Duty increase days before the Budget. (Photo: Robert Lamb / Wikimedia Commons)}

The Betting and Gaming Council has questioned the evidence behind a proposed £458m rise in Machine Games Duty, days before Chancellor John Healey delivers the Budget on Wednesday 28 October. The trade body points to internal comments in a draft Social Market Foundation report that, it says, raise doubts about how the impact on jobs and high streets was assessed.

The row lands in the middle of a pre-Budget lobbying push. The BGC has already launched a Back Our Betting Shops campaign ahead of the Budget, and the latest claim gives it a fresh argument against any further increase.

What the Draft Report Comments Show

The Social Market Foundation has called for Machine Games Duty to double from 20 to 40 per cent, arguing the move could raise up to £458m a year while helping to address gambling-related harm. A draft of its report was reportedly published with internal comments still attached, and those comments queried some of the assumptions behind its conclusions.

In one exchange, SMF director Theo Bertram asked whether a claim that jobs lost through venue closures would be offset elsewhere was overly optimistic, and what the basis was for confidence that workers would find new jobs. Chief economist Gideon Salutin replied that the analysis did not guarantee alternative employment, but maintained that overall employment would grow.

The draft also acknowledged that operators could close venues in response to higher taxes, and Salutin confirmed that bingo halls and seaside arcades would be affected, according to the City AM report.

The BGC Response

"The reported internal comments raise serious questions about the evidence being used to justify further tax increases."

A BGC spokesperson made the comment to City AM, adding that the issue was whether the full consequences for jobs, businesses and high streets had been properly considered. The BGC said the comments strengthened its warnings about the potential economic consequences of another increase.

Independent modelling commissioned by the BGC from EY estimates that doubling the duty could put almost 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos at risk, cost up to 16,000 jobs and leave the Treasury £124m worse off. City AM noted that those forecasts remain contested, with supporters of higher duties arguing that the tax could raise significant revenue and reduce gambling-related harm.

Operators Add Their Voices

Machine Games Duty applies to gaming machines in betting shops, casinos, bingo halls and other venues, so it hits a different part of the industry from the online duty. Arcade operators are already bracing for a Machine Games Duty rise, and casino groups have made similar warnings.

William Hill owner Evoke said on Thursday that it had closed 270 shops over the past year. Chief executive Per Widerstrom said the closures showed the real impact of higher taxation on jobs and livelihoods. Evoke's third-quarter revenue fell seven per cent to £406m, although it said part of the fall came from customer-friendly results at the start of the football season.

Earlier this week, Flutter announced plans to cut around 1,400 jobs across the UK and Ireland to offset higher gambling duties. Last year's Budget lifted the tax on online casino profits from 21 to 40 per cent, and online sports betting duty is set to rise to 25 per cent in 2027. Whether the Chancellor touches Machine Games Duty will be known on Wednesday.