Super Group Cuts 2026 Guidance After $40m Sports Hit, Launches $150m Buyback

^{Betway is Super Group's flagship sportsbook brand. The group trimmed its 2026 targets after a run of customer-friendly sports results. (Image: Betway Group / Wikimedia Commons)}

Super Group, the parent of Betway and the Spin casino brands, has lowered its full-year 2026 guidance after customer-friendly sports results cost it about $40m of third-quarter revenue. The NYSE-listed group reported its third-quarter figures on 3 November and paired the revised outlook with a new share repurchase programme of up to $150m.

Total revenue is now expected to land between $2.525bn and $2.575bn for the year, with adjusted EBITDA of $700m to $720m. The company said the revision reflects sports outcomes that went the players' way rather than a change in its underlying model.

Third-Quarter Numbers

Revenue for the three months to 30 September rose 10% to $611m, up from $557m a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $165m, a 27% margin, and profit for the period reached $142m against $96m in the same quarter of 2025. Monthly active customers grew 9% to 6.0 million.

Chief financial officer Alinda van Wyk said customer-friendly sports outcomes cut revenue by roughly $40m and adjusted EBITDA by around $25m. "Casino gross revenue increased 16%, while our long-term sports margin remains within our expected structural range," she said in the results statement.

"Our revised guidance reflects customer-friendly sports outcomes."

Casino Carries the Quarter

The segment tables show where the growth came from. In the International segment, which covers Europe and the group's other non-African markets, iGaming revenue climbed to $310m from $290m, while sportsbook revenue slipped to $33m from $36m. Africa was the faster mover, with iGaming revenue of $205m against $169m a year earlier and sportsbook revenue of $57m against $55m.

Europe contributed $115m of revenue in the quarter, up from $108m, and made up 19% of reportable segment revenue. For UK readers, the group's British business sits inside that figure, and it is the market where Betway has built a high-profile football presence. Super Group does not break out UK revenue in the release.

The picture is a familiar one for operators with both product lines. Casino revenue is steadier and less exposed to a bad weekend of results, while sportsbook margin can swing the quarter. The company's own wording, that the long-term sports margin remains within its structural range, signals that management treats the shortfall as variance rather than a shift in trend.

Cash, Buyback and Tax Pressure

Super Group ended September with $602m in cash, compared with $513m at the end of 2025. Operating cash inflows were $377m over the nine months. Dividends of $203m were paid in that period, bringing capital returns over the previous 12 months to $223m.

The board authorised the buyback on 30 October. It allows repurchases of up to $150m of ordinary shares through to the end of December 2027, though the company stressed it is not obliged to buy any shares and can extend, shorten or end the programme.

The results land as UK operators weigh the cost of the latest Budget. Earlier this year the sector was already bracing for another tax rise on machine games duty and other levies, and Super Group's adjusted EBITDA definition includes provisions for remote gaming duty. Even so, the company's guidance cut is attributed to sports results, not to tax.

Investors will get a read on whether sports margin normalises when Super Group reports full-year results. Until then, the revised range assumes the fourth-quarter sports margin stays within its usual band.