Quebec Likely to Scrap Monopoly, Open Online Gambling Market

^{PQ and Liberals both pledge to end the Loto-Quebec monopoly and open the online market to private operators. (Image: Michael Matthews/Alamy)}

Canada's French-speaking province is on a surprise course to open its online gambling market after two pro-reform parties won 99 of the 127 seats in the Oct. 5 election.

The Liberals pledged to open the market to licensed private operators, and the Parti Quebecois has built revenue from legal online sports betting into its fiscal plan.

The PQ won 59 seats and will govern as a minority. Its members were sworn in as legislators on Oct. 15, and leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is set to unveil his cabinet and formally take office on Oct. 21.

While an inability to command a majority in the National Assembly could imperil many of its policy priorities, online gambling reform looks to be on very safe ground.

That's because it's the Liberal Party, now the official opposition, that can claim credit for putting iGaming on the campaign agenda.

The Liberals made gambling reform a key part of their election platform, promising to expand the mandate of the existing gaming regulator so that it could license all forms of online operators.

Their fiscal framework counts on CA$320 million in revenue in 2027-28, rising to CA$350 million in 2030-31.

In a rare moment of pre-election harmony, PQ leader and premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon took time on the campaign trail to praise what he called an "excellent idea" from his main rival, Liberal leader Charles Milliard.

"Mr. Milliard says, and he's right, I've done the research: online sports betting in Quebec is a Wild West. American companies arrive, then advertise, and are not regulated," he said in a Sept. 9 interview with Radio-Canada.

Plans for reform also represent a huge victory for the Quebec Online Gaming Coalition, a pressure group that formed in 2023 with the express goal of opening up the province's online gambling market.

"The positions taken by the various political parties demonstrate that a broad consensus is emerging in Quebec in favour of establishing clear rules that must apply equally to both Loto-Quebec and private companies offering online gaming," said the group's spokesperson, Ariane Gauthier.

Market Potential

Although St-Pierre Plamondon's suggestion that U.S.-based operators dominate Quebec's grey market is questionable, there is little doubt that the province does play host to a bustling offshore online gambling sector.

A private-sector study estimates the total Quebec iGaming market at around CA$3.09 billion (US$2.2 billion), but suggests that almost three-quarters of that revenue currently flows to unregulated operators.

Loto-Quebec, however, says 81% of online players use its platform.

With a population of 9 million, the province is the second most populous in Canada after Ontario, which blazed a trail by opening its own online casino and sports betting market in April 2022.

Alberta closely followed Ontario's example when it reformed its own iGaming market in July this year. 

As of mid-October, 30 operators were running 51 licensed sites there.

Quebec represents Canada's second-largest provincial economy, sitting between Alberta and Ontario in real GDP terms.

By copying Ontario's approach, the coalition estimates that the province could pull in as much as CA$300 million a year in tax revenue, a prospect that has clearly energized the premier-designate.

A Radio-Canada fact-check noted that, adjusted for Ontario's larger population, the parties' targets of roughly CA$300 million a year exceed what iGaming Ontario earns in net profit.

"Imagine if we take $300 million and invest it in homelessness, for children who are hungry at school, for learning disabilities, we could have an immediate impact," St-Pierre Plamondon said in his pre-election comments.

When Will It Happen?

While there is political will behind the idea of iGaming reform in Quebec, it is likely to be some time before Quebecers are placing bets with locally licensed operators.

Alberta began an online gambling fact-finding mission in February 2024, almost two and a half years before it eventually fired the starting gun on its new market.

But the coalition told Casinos.com it is ready to play its part in pushing for immediate progress.

A spokesperson said it will keep working with elected officials, especially the ministers to be named Oct. 21, to make sure the PQ and the Liberals follow through on their promise to create a regulatory framework.

The lobbyists say they hope to lean on the new government's need for cash to fund its policies.

The coalition's spokesperson pointed out that the PQ included the hoped-for iGaming windfall in its spending plan, meaning it may need the money sooner rather than later.

"While the Coalition has no control on the priorities and on the agenda of the National Assembly, it wants to highlight that the financial framework of the Parti Quebecois includes 1.2 billion dollars over the next 4 years in revenue stemming from this promise," the spokesperson said.

"This seems to indicate a political will to act quickly on this file," the spokesperson added.

The Lottery Lingers

Reforming iGaming laws would remove the monopoly currently held by state-owned Loto-Quebec, which may attempt to delay or derail these plans.

Loto-Quebec did not respond to a request for comment from Casinos.com on its view of potential reforms.

Loto-Quebec is also one of four lottery corporations appealing a ruling that would let Ontario's online poker players compete against players outside Canada. 

The Supreme Court heard the case Oct. 7.

Au Revoir Quebec?

The Parti Quebecois is staunchly pro-independence and believes that Quebec should ultimately separate from the rest of Canada to form a new French-speaking nation.

In the face of a trade war with the United States, support for separation is at a low ebb, and the new premier has said he will wait until Donald Trump leaves the White House before making his move.

However, the PQ's lack of a majority in the National Assembly and the fact that the Liberals, who oppose secession, occupy the bulk of the remaining seats make the journey to separation hard to envisage.

Nevertheless, the possibility of an independent Quebec will hang over any plans for iGaming, much as it did in Alberta, until voters there rejected separation by a wide margin.