2024 Irish Election: Poll Results and Betting Market Trends

_{Simon Harris, the current Taoiseach/PM of Ireland. (Image: PA Images / Alamy)}

As the general election takes place tomorrow, on the 29th of November, numerous polling companies and betting markets predict who they’ll expect to lead the next government from Merrion Street in Dublin. 

So far, the leaders of the top parties go neck and neck in terms of the odds placed and favourability according to the latest research confirmed on who they think based off of the data.

According to the latest research from Ireland’s top polling company, IPSOS, Fine Gael are on a staggering 19%, whilst Fianna Fail, led by Micheal Martin, are at 23% and Sinn Fein, led by Mary Lou McDonald, are at 20%.    

This means that Fine Gael are at the bottom, due to a lack of favourability. Other parties, such as the Social Democrats and the Green Party, are at 6%, while Labour are at 4% and others like Independents are at 17%. This research was carried out between 20th and 23rd November.

However, data from online casinos and the betting market says different.

According to the site Oddschecker, Fine Gael are still expected to lead the next government, with probability at 57% with odds placed at 3/4. Fianna Fail are also expected, with their probability at 50% and odds at 1/1. Sinn Fein are at 13% with odds at 7/1.

However, according to BoyleSports, it has tipped that even Micheal Martin could be the next Taoiseach, who already served a term as Taoiseach in 2021. 

His odds are at 4/9, whilst Simon Harris is at 9/4, and spectators have a good enough idea of what kind of government could be formed next.

It is expected by most that a government formed by Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and Independents will be on the table. It is also predicted that former gangland criminal Gerard “the Monk” Hutch could win a seat in Mary Lou’s constituency in Dublin Central. Hutch is new to the realm of politics and seems to be a favourite among constituents in the area. Although it is uncertain where he stands in the polls.

Despite a high probability that either Simon Harris or Micheal Martin are high in the polls, a number of controversies have taken place, including Sinn Fein, as the immigration issue has been a hot button topic that neither party is willing to tackle.