Papal Conclave 2025: Alternative Pope Betting Props Markets

The news that Pope Francis had sadly passed away broke earlier this week, and only hours later, prediction markets had already listed odds on who his successor would be. 

Both Kalshi and Polymarket in the US, alongside multiple bookmakers and casino sites in other areas around the world, priced up odds on who the next pontiff would be. Cardinal Pierto Parolin was the early betting favorite, but dozens of candidates are available to wager money on. 

Betting on the next Pope is not something new, or at least not in Europe. In 2013, more than £300,000 ($450,000 at the time) was wagered in bets on the next Pope. It was the most significant "non-sporting event" of the year for one bookmaker. 

In the same year, one mystery lady reportedly "told anyone who was prepared to listen" in a bar in Co. Kerry, Ireland, to have a bet on Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio at 50/1. Punters in the bar took one bookmaker for €6,000. 

Clearly, betting on the next Pope has a long and colorful history. Even in the U.S., Google search trends show spikes of interest in papal odds going back to April 2005, when Pope Benedict XVI was elected.

Alternative Pope Betting Prop Markets 

*Odds displayed above are hypothetical and intended for entertainment purposes only

A Casinos.com trader and oddsmaker commented, "Francis broke the mold as the first Jesuit pope, but there’s no strong indication the College of Cardinals wants to repeat that precedent.

"English is the Church’s best chance at global accessibility. It’s not guaranteed, but it’s likely—especially if a non-European is chosen.

"Italy’s a short favorite considering it has proximity and Vatican ties. The US is quite active on social media and just had their Vice President meet Francis the day before his passing. 

"Francis was the most digitally visible pope ever. Considering the ages of the favorites, we're fading immediate activity, but if the new pope is younger, that could change.

"John is papal tradition — but modern popes opt for symbolic statements. We’ve priced ‘No’ as very likely, with ‘Yes’ as a long shot for fans of nostalgia.

"2013 was only two days and only included five ballots. It's been nearly 200 years since it took longer than a week. This conclave may be more divided, but tradition leans fast once momentum builds."