Next Pope Odds: Pietro Parolin Early Favorite to Replace Pope Francis

^{US Vice President JD Vance (left) met Saturday with Cardinal Pietro Parolin (right) the day before the death of Pope Francis, and may or may not have expressed a shared fondness for red hats. (Image: Vatican Media / Abaca Press / Alamy Live)}

Pope Francis died early Monday at the age of 88, with the Vatican saying that the pontiff has passed away due to a stroke that led to heart failure. Only hours after the Argentinian passed, prediction markets had already listed odds on who would replace him as the leader of the Roman Catholic Church. 

Both Kalshi and Polymarket were offering markets on who the next pope would be as of Monday evening, with users of both sites coming to a consensus on a favorite.

Odds-On Cardinal Leaders

That early favorite is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who has served as secretary of state for the Vatican since 2013. The 70-year-old was effectively Pope Francis’ second-in-command, overseeing the foreign policy and internal affairs of the Catholic Church. Parolin is currently given a 34% chance of taking the papacy on Kalshi, and a similar 36% chance on Polymarket.

Parolin is Italian and is seen as a favorite for two major factors. First, he’s considered a centrist that’s not likely to rock the boat either by reversing many of the reforms seen during Pope Francis’ tenure, nor to move the church further in a liberal direction. He’ll also provide institutional stability thanks to his long track record in Vatican politics.

Liberal ‘Asian Francis’ Makes His Play

Both sides also agree on the second-favorite: Luis Antonio Tagle. A 67-year-old cardinal from the Philippines, Tagle leans liberal in his theology, which has led some to dub him the “Asian Francis.” If he were to win the papacy, Tagle would be the first Asian pope. Polymarket users are pricing Tagle as having a 24% chance to become the next pope, with Kalshi pricing him in at a 23% chance.

The two sites are split on the third-most likely candidate. Kalshi users prefer Cardian Peter Erdo (10%), a conservative pope from Hungary who is expected to get some support from other cardinals who want a move away from Francis’ more liberal leanings. Over at Polymarket, users give better chances to Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (11%), a 69-year-old Italian who shares Francis’ liberal theological bent, particularly when it comes to support for the poor. 

Other top contenders include Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who serves as the top official at the Vatican for Middle Eastern affairs, Ghanian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who would be the first African pope since Pope Gelasius, who served from 492-496 AD, and Robert Sarah, a 79-year-old cardinal from Guinea who could also earn that honor. 

The funeral rites for Pope Francis will be held for nine days, the traditional period of mourning. A conclave of the 135 members of the College of Cardinals – made up of any cardinals under the age of 80 – will be called to the Vatican for a conclave which will begin somewhere between 15 and 20 days after Francis’ death. 

On the first evening of the meeting, the cardinals will hold a single vote, followed by two rounds of voting each morning and each afternoon. This process continues until a winner emerges, which requires a two-thirds majority to agree on a single candidate. After each failed vote, the ballots are burned, creating the famous black smoke that indicates there is not yet a new pope. On the final, successful vote, the Sistine Chapel will produce white smoke instead to indicate the pope has been chosen.