Odds on How ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’ Will Perform at Worldwide Box Office

_{Tom Cruise attends the world premiere of "MissioTom Cruise walks the red carpet at the Mexico City premiere of "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" ahead of the film’s global release. (Image: Eyepix Group / Alamy)}

"Mission: Impossible" has long felt like a franchise that would never die, but Tom Cruise's special agent Ethan Hunt looks set for his final reckoning in the new movie.

Cruise will make his eighth and final foray onto the big screen as Hunt in "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning," which opens in the United Kingdom on May 21 and in the United States on May 23.

But the movie comes with some added pressure.

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Due to Paramount's reported spend of between $300 million and $400 million, "The Final Reckoning" will need to achieve a Mission: Impossible first, grossing $800 million or more at the worldwide box office.

That would be just enough to break even, as the studio typically receives only about half of the total box office gross, with the rest going to distributors and others.

In 2018, "Mission: Impossible – Fallout" earned more than $791 million globally, making it the top performer among the franchise’s seven films.

But is Paramount saving the best for last?

Mission: Hit $800 Million or More

The early signs are promising. "The Final Reckoning" has already opened in Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, earning $12 million in its first two days following its May 17 release.

This bodes well, but will it be enough? There are some concerns.

At the time of writing, "The Final Reckoning" has an 80% score on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, the franchise’s lowest since 2007’s "Mission: Impossible III," which scored 71%.

By comparison, the sixth installment, "Fallout," holds a 98% rating and remains the franchise’s most successful box office outing, grossing more than $791 million worldwide.

Even "Dead Reckoning Part One" fared well critically, with a 96 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. However, the seventh film couldn’t match "Fallout"’s financial performance, bringing in $571.1 million — $220 million less.

Across the seven films, the "Mission: Impossible" franchise averages $591 million in global ticket sales. But with the added appeal of being the final installment, "The Final Reckoning" could exceed expectations.

Will audiences turn out to witness a cinematic finale? Paramount certainly hopes so.

It’s the 6/5 favorite for "The Final Reckoning" to gross between $600 million and $699 million worldwide, and 11/8 to reach between $700 million and $799 million.

_{Still from "Mission: Impossible II" (2000) showing Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt in one of the film’s iconic action sequences. (Image: AJ Pics / Alamy)}

The studio will be hoping for the $800 million–plus bracket, which is priced at 13/8. But a flop on the level of "Mission: Impossible III," which grossed under $400 million, looks unlikely. That outcome is a 6/1 long shot, but it would mark a sad ending for the franchise.

Will ‘MI8’ Break Oscars Jinx?

Beyond box office numbers, another measure of success would be an Oscar win.

Christopher McQuarrie returns to direct his fourth consecutive "Mission: Impossible" film, and some believe he could finally lead the franchise to its first Academy Award.

"Dead Reckoning Part One" achieved a milestone by becoming the first "Mission: Impossible" film to receive Oscar nominations, with nods for Best Visual Effects and Best Sound at the 96th Academy Awards.

Unfortunately, it lost out, "Godzilla Minus One" won for visual effects, while "The Zone of Interest" claimed Best Sound.

Now, the franchise gets one last shot at Oscar glory. But history isn’t on its side. Still, is "Mission: Impossible" due for its moment?

After coming close last time, many fans feel it would be fitting for the series to bow out with an Academy Award win. However, could the streak of Oscar snubs continue, just like for Cruise himself?

The star has received four Academy Award nominations, two for Best Actor, one for Best Supporting Actor, and a Best Picture nomination for "Top Gun: Maverick" in 2023, but has yet to take home a statue. 

Is he bothered?

In 2005, he told "The Irish Examiner": “I didn’t grow up watching the Oscars, so it’s never been a goal. I wanted to act. People have tried to get me to do a role by saying, ‘This is your Oscar.’ That means nothing to me.”

If Cruise still feels that way, he may not mind the 8/11 odds that "The Final Reckoning" misses out on an Oscar.

However, if the film can replicate "Dead Reckoning"’s two nominations and turn one into a win, Cruise and company will have plenty to celebrate.

It’s 11/8 for the movie to break the franchise’s Academy Awards drought.

No ‘Final Reckoning’ Bloodbath

A movie’s visual effects often include death scenes, but "The Final Reckoning" isn’t expected to feature as many as the seventh film.

There were 45 deaths in "Dead Reckoning Part One", including (spoiler alert) Rebecca Ferguson’s character Ilsa Faust, who was stabbed in the chest by Gabriel Martinelli (Esai Morales).

By contrast, the first "Mission: Impossible" film in 1996 featured just 20 deaths, including Jon Voight’s Jim Phelps and Jean Reno’s Franz Krieger.

Nearly 30 years later, "The Final Reckoning" appears set to come full circle with a more modest body count.

It’s 6/4 for the film to feature between 21 and 30 deaths, and 13/8 for between 11 and 20. The odds for a single-digit death toll are longer at 6/1.