Who Will Win a New York Casino License? We’ve Got the Odds

^{The horses are at the gate and three of these eight runners will hit the trifecta and win the right to make their vision for a land-based casino in downstate New York a reality. (Image: Casinos.com)}

We’re now past the June 27 deadline for bids on a downstate New York casino license – and the field is shifting. With some early favorites already bowing out, we’re getting a clearer picture of who the real contenders (and pretenders) are in the race for up to three licenses across New York City, Long Island, and the Lower Hudson Valley. 

So far, four have dropped out, leaving eight remaining to vie for three licenses. Simple math says that means everyone has a decent chance. But in the race for the right to try and make billions, not all is even across the board. 

We’ve compiled a full rundown of the leading bids – complete with odds (for entertainment purposes only) and quick breakdowns of each contender. We’ve sized up the most prominent proposals based on location, political support, and key partners. 

The Amazing New York Casino Race

Each bid is aiming to capture a piece of one of the most lucrative untapped land-based casino markets in the country. The licensing process requires applicants to gain approval from a local Community Advisory Committee while meeting zoning and environmental requirements.

The minimum buy-in to have a chance is $1 billion -- enough cash for a $500 million licensing fee and a promise to invest at least $500 million in capital investment. New York's Gaming Facility Location Board will make recommendations by Dec. 1, and the State Gaming Commission intends to award licenses by Dec. 31, though they have the ability to extend into early 2026 if necessary.

As the application deadline approaches, here's how the competition stacks up.

Big Favorites

MGM Empire City Casino: 2/11

Location: Yonkers Raceway, Yonkers (Westchester County)
Key Partners: MGM Resorts, JCJ Architecture, New York Yankees

Empire City Casino, operated by MGM Resorts, is one of two existing racinos vying for a full downstate license. MGM acquired the property in 2019 for $850 million and has since invested heavily in upgrades. With video lottery terminals and automated table games already in place, it could quickly convert to a full casino with minimal construction — and big upside.

The Yonkers Raceway has been offering some forms of gambling for years, so converting it into a full-scale casino resort would be relatively easy. (Rendering: MGM Resorts International)

Strengths:
Empire City is politically popular, shovel-ready, and financially backed. It’s the only bid in Westchester, meaning little risk of cannibalizing nearby revenue, and MGM has already sunk over $1 billion into the site. If the state wants a fast, proven success story, this is it.

Challenges:
Regulators may be tempted to favor new operators to maximize tax revenue and development buzz. If they decide to award all three licenses to newcomers, MGM could be left standing still.

Bottom line:
Empire City is a frontrunner. It has the money, the local support, and a head start. Unless the state prioritizes novelty over certainty, this license is MGM’s to lose.

Resorts World NYC: 2/5

Location: Queens, Jamaica (Aqueduct Racetrack)
Key Partners: Genting, New York Racing Association, Hyatt Regency

Like Empire City, Resorts World New York City already operates as a licensed racino – opened by Genting in 2011 and built into the grandstand of Aqueduct Racetrack, which has hosted gamblers since 1894. Genting’s $5 billion bid, in partnership with NYRA, proposes converting the site into a full-scale resort with a 350,000-square-foot casino, a 7,000-seat arena, and a 1,600-room luxury hotel. The plan also includes 3,000 units of workforce housing and 50 acres of parkland.

Resorts World NYC would expand its existing racino with a massive casino floor, hotel, arena, and parkland on the Aqueduct site. (Photo: Kurt Brady / Alamy)

Strengths:
As an operational racino, it’s got infrastructure in place and could convert quickly. Genting’s blueprint includes major capital investments, union support, housing commitments, and a full entertainment destination .

Challenges:
Genting’s reputation was hit by a recent $10.5 million Nevada fine for AML lapses at its Las Vegas property – raising compliance red flags. Additionally, competition in Queens (notably from Metropolitan Park) may dilute its advantage. Combine that with the same potential knock that Empire City faces – that maybe new casinos will add more revenue with existing racinos serving complimentary roles – and Genting has a slightly less certain path to a license than MGM.

Bottom line:
Resorts World NYC is well-positioned with an existing foothold and huge expansion vision – but reputational risk and local competition make it a step behind Empire City in the frontrunner tier.

Metropolitan Park: 2/3

Location: Queens, Adjacent to Citi Field
Key Partners: Steve Cohen (New York Mets), Hard Rock International, SHoP Architects

Led by Mets owner Steve Cohen with Hard Rock as operator, this $8 billion proposal seeks to transform 50 acres of Citi Field parking into a casino‑hotel, entertainment complex, concert venue, public park, and upgraded transit center. The project has cleared city-level approvals – it received unanimous support from Queens community boards and the City Council – and hinges on new state legislation to reclassify parkland.

A 50-acre lot would become Metropolitan Park, which would sit between Citi Field and a Hard Rock resort, casino and entertainment hub. (Rendering: MetropolitanPark.com)

Strengths:
Backed with massive financial firepower and broad local support, the proposal includes $1 billion in community benefits, infrastructure enhancements, and 23,000 union jobs. It also secured the essential zoning changes at city level.

Challenges:
The biggest roadblock was the need for a parkland alienation bill in Albany. State Sen. Jessica Ramos (D-Queens) opposes it, but the Assembly and Senate have now approved the legislation for this project. There’s still risk of internal competition if Resorts World NYC takes a downstate license.

Bottom line:
This is a bold, community-backed gamble with huge upside, and with parkland alienation no longer a concern, the bid has been significantly strengthened. Worth a serious look.

In the Running

Caesars Palace Times Square: 6/5

Location: Manhattan, Times Square
Key Partners: Caesars Entertainment, Jay-Z and Roc Nation, SL Green

Times Square may be known as the Crosswords of the World in the heart of New York City, but it lacks a casino. Caesars aims to change that with a proposed $4 billion casino‑hotel-resort in an SL Green‑owned skyscraper. Roc Nation brings entertainment savvy, Caesars builds the operation, and SL Green provides the site. The plan converts existing office space into a casino, hotel, and entertainment complex spanning eight casino floors and roughly 950 rooms.

This proposal to retrofit an existing skyscraper at 1515 Broadway into a casino-hotel-resort may have a gaming giant and A-list entertainment star power behind it, but is New York City ready to redefine one of its most central landmarks? (Rendering: Caesars Entertainment)

Strengths:
The project’s construction footprint is small thanks to the use of an existing tower. Roc Nation has pledged $250 million in community benefits, and the bid has secured support from key labor unions.

Challenges:
Local opposition is fierce, especially from Broadway interests and neighborhood groups concerned about crime, traffic, and the family-friendly reputation of Times Square. That pushback could make regulators wary of moving forward.

Bottom line:
This bid brings capital, efficiency, entertainment wow-factor, and labor backing. But strong local resistance could limit its chances. It’s a compelling bid, but not a guaranteed winner.

Freedom Plaza (New): 5/1

Location: Manhattan, Midtown East (next to the UN)
Key Partners: Soloviev Group, Mohegan Sun, Bjarke Ingels Group

Soloviev took over an abandoned Freedom Plaza proposal and brought in a gaming-industry heavy hitter Mohegan Sun to support its development of a site directly south of the United Nations. The location makes it one of the most prominent – and diplomatically sensitive – options under consideration. Yet is hardly ever mentioned when it comes to the favorites to win a casino license. 

The new Freedom Plaza envisions a transformative $10 billion mixed-use resort combining an underground casino, two hotels, two residential towers (over 1,300 units, including affordable housing), a nearly 5‑acre public park, museum, ferry access, and transit upgrades. Mohegan Sun brings gaming expertise, Soloviev delivers real-estate and financing muscle, and BIG provides architectural vision.

Freedom Plaza plans include affordable housing, a museum, and four acres of green space above the casino. (Rendering: Soloviev Group)

Strengths:
Backed by Mohegan Sun and developed by the Soloviev Group, the proposal is well-financed and includes robust community-investment plans like locally curated equity participation, thousands of union jobs, and ferry and park improvements.

Challenges:
Despite design tweaks (making the casino underground and adding green space), Midtown East resistance is fierce – CB 6 voted 39–1 against it, and local officials cite concerns over crime, traffic, and the area’s family-friendly identity..

Bottom line:
Freedom Plaza is a bold, well-backed vision with plenty of perks for the city—but local pushback in Midtown East and zoning hurdles make its path uncertain.

The Coney: 7/1

Location: Brooklyn, Coney Island
Key Partners: Thor Equities, Saratoga Casino Holdings, the Chickasaw Nation, Legends Hospitality

Dubbed “The Coney,” this $3 billion proposal led by Thor Equities seeks to transform five acres of privately owned land next to the iconic Wonder Wheel into a casino resort, 500-room hotel, convention center, concert venue, retail space and open-air park.

The Coney Island proposal aims to turn underused private lots into a year-round resort featuring casino gaming and live entertainment amid festive public spaces. (Rendering: Thor Equities)

Strengths:
With Thor’s urban redevelopment track record and Saratoga’s successful racino operation, the bid brings financial heft, union jobs, and an ambitious revitalization narrative for Coney Island. 

Challenges:
Opposition runs deep here. CB13 and neighborhood groups reject zoning changes, and the lack of a marquee gaming brand leaves the proposal exposed if regulatory appetite wanes.

Bottom line:
The Coney is a bold and locally grounded bid with strong partners and vision—but community resistance and missing gaming pedigree leave it more of a hopeful longshot than a front-runner.

Lucrative Longshots?

The Avenir: 7/1

Location: Manhattan, Far West Side
Key Partners: Silverstein Properties, Greenwood Gaming, Rush Street Gaming

Silverstein Properties, best known for the World Trade Center, is leading this casino proposal backed by gaming partners Greenwood (operator of Parx Casino) and Rush Street Gaming. The Avenir would rise 785 feet on vacant land near the Javits Center, featuring a casino, 1,000-room luxury hotel, restaurants, conference space, spa, and up to 100 affordable housing units.

The Avenir would transform a vacant lot near the Javits Center into a 785‑ft mixed‑use hub with gaming, lodging, and culture. (Rendering: Silverstein Properties)

Strengths:
The project is shovel-ready on land already owned by Silverstein, backed by reputable developers and experienced casino partners. It promises thousands of union jobs, affordable housing, and synergy with the nearby Javits Convention Center.

Challenges:
Despite its Manhattan setting, the site lacks pedestrian visibility compared to Times Square or the UN area, and the scale is modest relative to other mega-bids. With little public buzz and limited updates since 2023, progress could be seen as stalled .

Bottom line:
This is a well-resourced, strategically located bid with solid partners. But its discreet location and low public profile make it look more like a quiet contender than a headline-grabbing favorite.

Bally’s Bronx: 100/1

Location: The Bronx, Ferry Point Park
Key Partners: Bally’s Corporation

Bally’s has control of the former Trump-operated golf course at Ferry Point and aims to build a 500,000 sq ft casino, 500-room hotel, a 2,000-seat event center, and significant infrastructure upgrades including a new bridge over Lafayette Avenue and expanded bus service.

The 16‑acre site at Ferry Point Park includes the current Bally’s Links golf course, and turning it into a full resort would mean alienating public parkland. (Rendering: Bally's)

Strengths:
This is the only casino proposal in the Bronx and sits on accessible parkland already occupied by a public golf course, making it logistically convenient. Bally’s has pledged more than $600 million in community and infrastructure benefits, including a new NYPD substation and transit improvements.

Challenges:
While Bally's was able to get the state to grant its necessary parkland alienation bill, the city council has shut down its land-use changes, a necessary prerequisite for the application to go forward. Plus, Bally’s is financially stretched and the bid lacks the buzz or brand recognition of its competitors.

Bottom line:
Bally’s Bronx is logistically promising and backed by a strong community benefits plan. But with the city council now rejecting its land-use needs, it woul take a miracle for the project to move forward, and it's likely Bally's officially bows out sooner than later.

UPDATE: After the City Council rejected its needed land-use changes, we've moved the odds on Bally's Bronx to 100/1, as there is no realistic path for Bally's to get past this hurdle. 7/15/2005

Also-Rans: Bids That Came Up Short

Freedom Plaza (Original)

Location: Manhattan, Midtown (near Madison Square Garden and Penn Station)
Key Partners: Vornado Realty Trust
This was the original Freedom Plaza bid on the same Midtown East site now being pursued by Soloviev and Mohegan Sun. Vornado Realty Trust first proposed the project but abandoned it in fall 2024 amid financial pressures and a lack of community support, clearing the way for a new vision under new leadership.

Saks Fifth Avenue 

Location: Manhattan, Midtown (Saks Building, Fifth Avenue)
Key Partners: Hudson’s Bay Company
Hudson’s Bay floated an upscale boutique casino atop its flagship Saks store, but without a casino operator, and little traction since 2023, the project quietly slipped from the spotlight, and by April the legendary retailer officially withdrew its proposal.

Hudson Yards West 

Location: Manahattan, Far West Side
Key Partners: Wynn Resorts
With a $12 billion price tag, a planned school, housing, and a luxury Wynn casino, this bid looked viable on paper. But intense local backlash – especially over unmet affordable housing promises – left it politically toxic. On May 19, Wynn officially abandoned any lingering New York dreams.

Sands New York

Location: Long Island, Uniondale (Nassau Coliseum site)
Key Partners: Las Vegas Sands
This $6 billion Long Island proposal had political support and a prime, competition-free location. But fierce opposition from Hofstra University, traffic concerns, and legal entanglements seems to have permanently stalled its momentum. While not officially withdrawn, its odds now look so long we had to take it off our for-entertainment-purposes-only board.