Kalshi’s Spread Bets Bring Prediction Markets Closer to Sportsbooks

^{Critics say prediction market platform Kalshi is mirroring traditional sports betting after it got approved to offer contracts on NFL games, including spreads and totals. (Photo: Px Images / Alamy Live News)}

When predictive market platforms like Kalshi began offering contracts on sporting events earlier this year, they were immediately operating as sportsbooks in disguise. Those calls haven’t gotten any quieter since the platform introduced contracts that go beyond simply picking winners and losers for the football season.

Kalshi earned approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch contracts that that mimic common sportsbook wagers: point spreads, over/under bets, and touchdown scorer prop markets for both the 2025 NFL and college football seasons. These markets have regularly appearing on the website for early season games.

Alternative Markets Attracting Little Interest for Most Events

While the offerings resemble sportsbook bets, these alternative markets use the same basic format as any other contract offer on Kalshi. Users can buy and sell contracts that predict an outcome, such as the winner of the game or whether the favorite will cover the point spread. The price of those contracts is based on what traders will pay for them, with all correct contracts paying out $1 each after the event concludes.

So far, however, demand has been modest. Contracts that simply predict which team will win an NFL or college football game – equivalent to moneyline bets at a traditional sportsbook – remain the most popular option on Kalshi and also on Robinhood, which also offers many of Kalshi’s event contracts. In fact, spreads and totals have gotten very little volume for most games, at least for now.

For instance, I’m writing this article on the night of Friday, Sept. 19, as Tulsa plays Oklahoma State in a college football game. Live trading on the winner of the game shows over 3.1 million contracts worth of volume in the second quarter. . In contrast, just 3,200 contracts were traded on whether Tulsa would cover the 3.5-point spread, and around 2,500 contracts on the total points market (set at 51.5).

The massive gulf in volume has made these alternative contracts less attractive to traders as well, likely magnifying the difference in popularity between these markets. While the spread is very tight on the main game winner market, Yes and No contracts on a given team typically carry a combined price of about $1.01 to $1.02. It often rises to 10 cents or more on the spread and total markets due to lack of liquidity. 

Critics Say Sports Events Contracts Equate to Gambling

But low volume won’t be enough to silence critics of prediction sites from the traditional gaming industry. The American Gaming Association recently released a study finding that most voters view sports contracts as gambling, not financial products. Multiple states, including Nevada, have attempted to get Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction markets to cease offering sports-related markets in their jurisdictions. 

The NCAA also shared concerns about markets being offered on its games before the college football season began.

“Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we are deeply concerned by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a threat to competition integrity and student-athlete safety,” NCAA Senior Vice President of External Affairs Tim Buckley said in a statement. “We will continue to analyze developments of this market and work with industry leaders to help ensure guardrails and regulations to protect NCAA competition, student-athletes, coaches and officials.” 

Kalshi began offering political prediction markets in the United States last year after winning a court battle with the CFTC, which also dropped its remaining appeal earlier this year. Earlier in September, Polymarket also announced that it would reenter the United States under CFTC regulation, after its 2022 exit.