Royal Family Odds: Will Prince William Become King by End of 2024?

Fana Colette

Updated by

Fana Colette

Digital PR Specialist

Last Updated on 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM

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Royal Family Odds: Will Prince William Become King by End of 2024?

The British Royal Family has always been a source of fascination and intrigue, with each member's actions and decisions capturing the public's attention. 

As we look ahead at probable developments within the royal circle, it's natural to wonder about the likelihood of various events. After a recent tragedy with the death of Thomas Kingston, a close friend of the family, and numerous health troubles plaguing the royals, we are all wondering: what’s next? 

From Prince Harry's potential return to the UK to the likelihood of a royal pregnancy announcement, here are some intriguing hypothetical scenarios and their odds.

Royal Family Odds & Predictions

Here are some of the major odds and predictions for the Royal family:

Royal Family Odds

All Royal Family Odds

Event

Odds

Implied Probability

Meghan Enrols Prince Archie in Private School in May

1/100

99%

Prince William Becomes King by End of 2024

1/4

80%

Prince Harry Is Removed From Line of Succession by William

1/3

75%

King Charles Abdicates Throne by 2025

1/3

75%

Kate’s 1st Appearance at Trooping the Colour

4/6

60%

Princess Kate Announces Pregnancy

1/1

50%

Meghan Mentions the Royal Family on Her Podcast

9/5

35%

King Charles Appears in Public for Trooping the Colour

6/1

14%

Prince Harry Attends Trooping of the Colour

9/1

10%

Prince Andrew’s Return to Royal Duties

9/1

10%

King Charles attends Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting

20/1

5%

Royal Tour of Canada Goes Ahead

50/1

2%

Harry and Meghan Return to Royal Duties in 2024

1000/1

0.1%

 

Prince Harry Odds 

Prince Harry's return to the UK has been a topic of much speculation. He is said to be willing to mend fences with his family and step up to help at a time when the number of working royals continues to dwindle. Despite his willingness, we say the chances of Prince Harry becoming a working royal again in 2024 are 1000/1, or 0.1% probable. After a visit to father King Charles after his cancer diagnosis, could fences be mended? Probably not: the odds of him appearing at the next major royal event, the Trooping of the Colour are just 9/1 or 10%.

Meghan, Duchess of Sussex Odds 

After losing a deal with Spotify, Meghan has signed a new podcasting contract with the company Lemonada Media. Additional details of the podcast have not been revealed; however, Meghan might spill the tea on untold stories from her time within the royal family, offering a behind-the-curtain look at palace secrets. There are odds of 9/5 or 35% probability that Meghan will speak about her time in the royal family on the podcast. 

Another prediction relates to a milestone in the life of Meghan and Prince Harry’s firstborn and sixth in the line of succession for the British throne, Prince Archie. The odds of Meghan enrolling Archie into private school in May this year are 1/100 (99% probability). Both she and Harry attended private schools as children. Despite the many good public schools in their local California area, we predict that Archie will be enrolled in a private institution such as The Cate School for security reasons. The two most likely private schools in their area run from $30,000 to over $50,000 per year in tuition fees. 

Catherine, Princess of Wales Odds 

The 42-year-old princess has not had a public appearance for over two months — since Christmas Day last year.  A photo released in the US media on Tuesday claimed to show her being driven by her mother, but this has not been authenticated. Speculation is rife and questions have been asked such as whether she is seriously ill or pregnant, as well as why the details of her abdominal surgery have not been revealed after King Charles has been so open about the state of his health. Unfortunately despite wanting to keep her medical information private, Kate will likely have to reveal more to quell the rumours. 

Despite the official statements indicating that she will return to duties after Easter, our odds are 4/6 (60% probability) that the first time Kate will be seen in public is at the Trooping of the Colour on the 15th of June, giving her more time to recover.

Kate has three children already and has suffered from Hyperemesis Gravidarum during all of her pregnancies. The sickness is characterised by intense nausea, vomiting, weight loss, and dehydration; severe cases can lead to hospitalization. In fact, the princess was warned not to have any more children before giving birth to Prince Louis. Our predictions stand at 1/1 or 50% probability that Kate is currently pregnant.

Prince William Odds 

It is an intense time for Prince William as he juggles an ill father and wife, public engagements, and more. A controversial statement on the Middle East and a meme-worthy BAFTA appearance both kept this possible future king in the headlines recently. What’s next for Wills? The pressure could be getting to him, as he has already missed one planned appearance: giving a speech at the funeral of his Uncle King Constantine of Greece. 

With King Charles already quite advanced in age and fighting cancer, it’s odds of 1/4 (80% probability) that William will ascend to the throne and become king by the end of the year. We also predict that if that happens the odds that he swiftly removes his brother Prince Harry from the line of succession, are 1/3 or 75% probability. Despite the recent family tragedies the two brothers have not reconciled, and Prince Harry did not meet with William on his most recent trip to the UK. 

King Charles Odds 

The King is unlikely to appear for his June Trooping the Colour parade due to health concerns. The odds of him appearing in public for his birthday celebration are 6/1 or 14% probability. 

Another major event, the Royal Tour of Canada, had been planned for May. It is now only 50/1 or 2% likely that the King and Queen Camilla will go ahead with the tour as planned. Likewise, a royal visit to Samoa and Australia later in the year is unlikely to go ahead. We predict that the King has only a 20/1 or 5% probability of attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa on 21 October. 

Our major prediction is that King Charles will follow in the footsteps of another older monarch, the former Danish Queen Margrethe II to focus on his health and recovery. This European royal abdicated her throne at the start of 2024. The odds of King Charles abdicating the throne by 2025 are very likely: 1/3 or 75%.

Prince Andrew Odds

Prince Andrew's return to public life seems uncertain, especially in the wake of ongoing controversies. Although he was recently seen at his uncle's funeral, the likelihood of his full return to royal duties remains unclear. The public scrutiny surrounding his association with Jeffrey Epstein and the legal proceedings in the United States cast a shadow over his potential comeback; even as he was pictured smiling at his Uncle Constantine’s funeral, leading to speculation that he could return. The new embarrassing revelations however drop the likelihood of Prince Andrew resuming public duties this year to 9/1 or 10% probability.

Meet The Author

8 Years
Experience
Fana Colette
Fana Colette
Digital PR Specialist Digital PR Specialist

Fana is a writer and content specialist who specializes in the dynamic world of international publishing. For the past few years, her area of particular interest has been in the evolution of gaming laws due to her legal background. You can catch her sailing or swimming at the nearest beach when she's not keeping up with the most recent iGaming developments or honing her poker abilities.

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