House of the Dragon Season 1 Odds: The Start of the Targaryen Civil War?

HBO Max's highly-anticipated Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon has been a huge success in its first season. House Targaryen is the show’s focus, with unforgettable characters like Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen and Prince Daemon Targaryen, plus the dragon "cast". 

Sunday’s episode nine was called the best episode yet, with fans loving Rhaenys and her dragon in particular as well as the White Worm. The top question many people have is who is the White Worm in House of the Dragon?

It’s hard to believe but the series has only one episode left in the season. Upcoming episode ten is the season finale and we will most likely see the Dance of the Dragons begin. 

So who is likely to remain standing and who will fall in the fight to rule Westeros? 

Disclaimer: just because something happens in the books does not mean it will happen on the show. Despite the time jumps this is still a whole lot of story to deal with in 10 episodes. The books are also from the perspective of various storytellers, so there is no “absolute” truth. However, since author George R.R. Martin is a part of the TV show, it’s been said that what happens here on this series is THE definitive story.

Here are our picks for characters most likely to stay alive or die in the final episode.

House of the Dragon Odds To Stay Alive

First up is our prediction of the House of the Dragon characters most likely to stay alive. The ones at the top of the list will likely survive to plot and scheme another day.  

• Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen (-500)
• Alicent Hightower (-500)
• Prince Aemond Targaryen (-400)
• Mysaria (the White Worm) (-400)
• Ser Laenor Velaryon (-250)
• Prince Daemon Targaryen (-200)
• Grand Maester Mellos (-150)
• Ser Otto Hightower (-125)
• Princess Rhaenys Velaryon (+500)
• Ser Criston Cole (+500)
• Lord Jason Lannister (+750)
• Lord Corlys Velaryon (+1500)
• Ser Harrold Westerling (+1700)

Dance of the Dragons With House Targaryen Begins 

There are some big changes here in the House of the Dragon odds to survive. 

Princess Rhaenys Velaryon, on the back of some superb dragonriding, increases her chances of surviving. Her odds of survival go from +1500 to +500.

Aemond Targaryen moves up the list for the first time and is tied with Mysaria the White Worm, with odds of -400 to stay alive. While his brother Aegon may seem to be intent on drinking his way into an early grave, this younger brother is a bit smarter. He is likely to survive at least until the season finale.

Ser Otto Hightower sees a surprising drop from near the top of the list. His odds of surviving have halved. He is now only -125 odds to survive. This is due to his bumping heads with his daughter Alicent. While until now he has been pulling her strings, Alicent seems to be prepared to go her own way, which could bring her into conflict with her father. Especially in the war to come.

Ser Harrold Westerling was already at the bottom of the list and his odds to survive have worsened. He goes from +1600 to +1700. As we saw in the last episode, he lay down his cloak and the command of the City Watch, refusing to explicitly support Team Green. This could bring him up against the hotheaded Ser Criston Cole in the future. 

Mysaria aka the White Worm stays in place due to her smart maneuvering. Like Varys in Game of Thrones, she collects information and gossip from her “little birds” and that means she’s valuable, and possibly even powerful. However, will the return of Prince Daemon to King’s Landing switch her allegiance?

House of the Dragon Odds To Die in Season 1: Will the Lord Commander Die?
 

Next are the predictions for those who are likely to die in this week’s House of the Dragon episode ten, the end of season one. 
 

• Talya (handmaiden) (-10000)
• Lucerys Targaryen (-5000)
• Grand Maester Orwyle (-5000)
• Grand Maester Mellos (-5000)
• Ser Harrold Westerling (-5000)
• Otto Hightower (-2000)
• Ser Criston Cole (-1000)
• Lord Jason Lannister (-1000)
• Ser Laenor Velaryon (-500)
• Prince Daemon Targaryen (-500)
• Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen (-500)
• Prince Aegon Targaryen (-500)
• Larys Strong (-500)
• Princess Rhaenys Velaryon (-500)
• Alicent Hightower (+500)
• Lord Corlys Velaryon (+500)
• Mysaria (+500)

Big changes here in the odds of the House of the Dragon characters most likely to die including Lucerys Targaryen as a new top contender.

Lucerys Targaryen enters the list for the first time all season. Fans of the books will understand what the significance of this move. However, despite what the books may predict we are used to surprises by now. He is at -5000 odds to die in the next episode.

Talya, the handmaiden who brought news of Aegon’s bad behavior to Alicent in the last episode, further increases her odds to die. Note: she is one of the characters that does not appear in the books, so there is no expectation. She is the only true wildcard. We predict she will die soon so she’s near the top of the list. 

Princess Rhaenys is much safer than last week. She is back at Dragonstone, surrounded by dragons and her family. She goes from -5000 to -500.

Ser Otto Hightower doubles his chances of dying. His odds of dying are now -2000 as his grandson Aegon is on the throne and Alicent seems to be taking power back. Young blond kings don’t have a great reputation in the Game of Thrones universe, so it’s possible Aegon may not care about familial ties and could end his grandfather on a whim.

Larys Strong is safer this week as he has proven himself invaluable to Queen Alicent, and even her father, Ser Otto. He is playing both sides and that could be a good thing. He has allied himself with the two (currently) most powerful people in Kings Landing. He goes from -5000 to -500.

Two characters at the top of our list last week passed on.

Lord Allun Caswell as we predicted had the worst odds to survive (-10000), and that forecast proved right. He ends the episode hanging in full view of everyone in the Red Keep as a warning.

Lord Lyman Beesbury also had odds of -10000 to die and he was killed in the last episode for his loyalty to Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen.

RIP to Lord Beesbury

In the books, Lord Beesbury’s death marked the start of the Dance of the Dragons. Due to the different perspectives in the book’s narrative, there are three different accounts of how he died. 

Who is the White Worm in House of the Dragon?

First introduced to us as Mysaria, a paid companion to Daemon Targaryen, the White Worm has come a long way since episode one. The White Worm actress is Sonoya Mizuno, a Japanese-British woman. 
 

In the series, she is from a place called Lysaria, and her motives are still unknown. It is certain, however, that she does not intend to go back to being bought and sold like she was before. She is now a powerful character who used her influence last episode to fight for the children of Flea Bottom.

It's not all sunshine and roses however as the book refers to her as not just Lady Mysaria, but as "Lady Misery". Depending on who she decides to support she could be a huge pain in some of the main characters' sides. While we saw her rise to Daemon's side and also help Otto Hightower, it's clear that the main loyalty Mysaria has is to herself.

Predictions from House of the Dragon Episode 10 Preview Trailer
 

The preview for episode ten “The Black Queen” is centered around Dragonstone, just as episode nine was based in King’s Landing. It starts with Rhaenys warning “The Greens are coming for you Rhaenyra. And for your children.”

Team Black seems to be mostly in place now with a council of men around the Painted Table urging Rhaenyra to fight. A hand that belongs to someone in the Kingsguard puts a piece on the map at Winterfell, home of the Starks.

So what does the preview predict for characters we thought may have been safe from dying?

• Daemon to no one’s surprise does not seem keen on negotiation. It’s safe to predict that he’ll go into battle for his wife and children. This could be risky for him especially since Aemond seemed to be itching for a fight with his uncle.
• Lucerys and Jacaerys are seen asking their mother Rhaenyra to send them to (presumably) Kings Landing. While this seems like a bad idea, the preview does show at least one brother running to a dragon so it looks like she gives permission. Book readers will predict that this is bad news for Lucerys.
• Rhaenyra’s council and advisors surprisingly has one of the Cargyll twins among them, namely Ser Erryk. He holds out King Viserys’ crown and declares for her side. We  might see some brother versus brother action like the Hound versus the Mountain in Game of Thrones.
• Otto Hightower is shown back at the bridge of Dragonstone, just like early in the season and there are swords drawn. He took a huge risk in coming face to face with Daemon and he may not leave this second encounter alive.

Rhaenyra Targaryen of Team Black on House of the Dragon vs. Queen Alicent and Team Green

Time to pick your team. Football may be back but it’s not NFL teams we are interested in this season. The Greens and Blacks of Westeros are the two teams you need to know. For readers of the A Song of Ice and Fire series, they have been anticipating this matchup: the Targaryen civil war. So who’s who?

Team Green

The greens are the team of Queen Alicent and her sons, particularly the firstborn Aegon Targaryen. Alicent can count on the support of some members of the small council and Ser Criston Cole of the Kingsguard. Of course, her father Ser Otto Hightower has also been waiting for this moment ever since he stepped foot in Kings Landing. The Hightowers and the Strongs led by Larys Strong can be expected to support Alicent. 

Even though King Viserys declared the throne belongs to Princess Rhaenyra, Alicent is determined to back her son’s claim based on the misunderstood deathbed proclamation by the king.

Team Black

The Black Queen, Rhaenyra Targaryen has the noblemen of the land who swore to uphold her succession. Not only are they supporting her, but they are also protecting her heirs. Prince Jacaerys Velaryon is the oldest and should inherit the throne after Rhaenyra. She also has two other sons, and she was shown in episode eight as pregnant again by her uncle-husband Prince Daemon Targaryen. These two are a formidable team, to say the least. Not to mention Daemon’s two daughters, Baela and Rhaena, who have at least one dragon as of now. Hopefully, the Velaryons will also rally to Rhaenyra’s side now that Baela and Rhaena are to marry Rhaenyra’s sons and Rhaenys has seen up close how far Alicent and Otto are willing to go.

Rhaenys and the Dragon Meleys

We were disappointed last week when the dragon counter remained empty. However, the spectacle of Rhaenys’ dragon Meleys bursting from the Dragonpit more than made up for it this week. 

Also, last week we did see Daemon getting three eggs from Syrax in a cave on Dragonstone. These eggs will go to his child that Rhaenyra is currently carrying, as well as the two he already had before that. The preview for next week shows him singing in High Valyrian to a dragon and there is some debate as to if this is a new dragon or his own dragon, Caraxes.

One theory is that this dragon is Vermithor, Jacaerys’ dragon. If true, this will be the first time we see this dragon in its full glory. He was nicknamed the Bronze Fury. Team Black therefore has Caraxes, Meleys, Syrax and the children’s dragons on their side. We see three dragons leaving Dragonstone in the preview for next week’s episode.

As we head into the House of the Dragon season finale our odds are the best predictions out there and will be updated as more characters come and go. One thing is for sure, all bets are off in a show like this where anything can happen.  

With the end of the season growing closer, House of the Dragon hasn’t come close to the number of deaths in Game of Thrones - yet. Much of the violence has been up close and personal, whereas Game of Thrones had plenty of larger battles. The more seasons that passed, the more kills the characters racked up. The most deaths happened in the eighth and final season, 3,523. Season one, on the other hand, had a mere 59 deaths.

Winterfell, the site of one of the series' climactic confrontations, was the deadliest place in Game of Thrones.

With one episode to go this season, we have had a lot of shocking deaths, even if the numbers are not as high as Game of Thrones. Young Alicent and Rhaenyra have grown into powerful women that will stop at nothing and now the king is gone, all bets are off. There’s a long and bloody war to come.
Expect the deaths to ramp up quickly from now on.